705k dead
200k cases and 2000 dead per day
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560k dead. Deaths have flatlined also.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Daily New Deaths in the United States, 7 day rolling average:
March 25: 968
March 18: 1160
March 11: 1428
March 4: 1876
Nice flatline there.
7 day rolling average:
March 26: 988
March 29: 988
April 1: 919
April 8: 783
muh flatline
April 15: 746
cases continue to creep up. Over 578k dead now.Presumably you mean April 14: 746.
Deaths have declined by 22.9% since your flatline prediction (March 25 vs April 14), and by 42.6% over the month (March 14 vs April 14); your claim that "Deaths have flatlined also" has proven wrong. Note that even if deaths were to flatline at 746 going forward, your claim would still have been wrong, as it was that claims *have* flatlined, not that they *would* flatline, at some lower level, at some indeterminate point in the future.
As for cases, they have indeed crept up (+22.8%, March 25 vs April 14). (If you consider this a noteworthy increase, than presumably you would concede that the 22.9% decrease in deaths over the same period is as well.) So why have we seen this divergence between deaths and cases? Five mechanisms spring to mind.
1. We have vaccines now, and they are more effective at preventing severe disease outcomes, including death, than at preventing infections, so the IFR/CFR is dropping.
2. Relatedly, the fact that the vaccines have shown less than 100% efficacy in preventing transmission means that people are now getting infected by vaccinated transmitters. These vaccinated transmitters generally have lower viral loads than unvaccinated transmitters, and so people getting infected by them are generally getting hit with a smaller initial viral load. The body is generally able to mount a more effective immunological response when the initial viral load is light (part of the rationale for masks, see, e.g., https://msphere.asm.org/content/5/5/e00637-20), and so as an increasing proportion of the people getting infected are getting these light loads from vaccinated transmitters, the IFR/CFR will drop further.
3. The key comorbidity with respect to Covid has been age, with seniors dying at rates literally orders of magnitude higher t...See full postU were saying?