Biggest Academic Loser from Brexit? « Political Science Rumors

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Biggest Academic Loser from Brexit?

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Kezia

All political scientists. Here's Larry Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/whats-crucial-to-know-the-morning-after-brexit/

Plenty of Political Science predicted the eventual crackup of Europe. Another thread talks about how Mearsheimer has predicted it so relentlessly that eventually he had to be right, but he was far from the only one. If you take nationalism seriously, or social ties, then there are strong implications that Europe as a project is doomed.
Just because Larry and you (apparently) are ignorant of those scholars doesn't mean they aren't there.

There is "prediction," and then there is the phenomenon known as "self-fulfilling prophecy." Do not confuse the two.

6 years ago # QUOTE 4 YEA 2 NAY !
Chun

Shall we say The System Did Not Work?

6 years ago # QUOTE 2 YEA 3 NAY !
Harland

I am glad Britain vote Leave just because it gave this douche a bad day.

The clown at Aberdeen University in Scotland who describes himself as an "Int'l Relations prof, European security, EU/US politics, military history. US/UK/EU citizen, Europhile". His Twitter feed is the epitome of the ugly American, with him expressing deep disappointment with the British people, lol:
https://twitter.com/ProfMESmith?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

6 years ago # QUOTE 2 YEA 2 NAY !
Vienne

All political scientists. Here's Larry Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/whats-crucial-to-know-the-morning-after-brexit/
Plenty of Political Science predicted the eventual crackup of Europe. Another thread talks about how Mearsheimer has predicted it so relentlessly that eventually he had to be right, but he was far from the only one. If you take nationalism seriously, or social ties, then there are strong implications that Europe as a project is doomed.
Just because Larry and you (apparently) are ignorant of those scholars doesn't mean they aren't there.

There is "prediction," and then there is the phenomenon known as "self-fulfilling prophecy." Do not confuse the two.

You have a really high opinion of the influence of political scientists if you think Mearsheimer's "predictions" caused the Brexit!

6 years ago # QUOTE 3 YEA 3 NAY !
Myriam

what scholar ever said that fears about immigration are restricted to a few right wing fringe parties? For all the disagreement about immigration in the literature, I can almost guarantee you no political scientist ever said that.

Scholars who think fears about immigration are restricted to a few right wing fringe parties.

6 years ago # QUOTE 3 YEA 2 NAY !
Mellony

I guessed I missed Summers saying econ is oxymoron after 2008.`

All political scientists. Here's Larry Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/whats-crucial-to-know-the-morning-after-brexit/

Plenty of Political Science predicted the eventual crackup of Europe. Another thread talks about how Mearsheimer has predicted it so relentlessly that eventually he had to be right, but he was far from the only one. If you take nationalism seriously, or social ties, then there are strong implications that Europe as a project is doomed.
Just because Larry and you (apparently) are ignorant of those scholars doesn't mean they aren't there.

6 years ago # QUOTE 3 YEA 5 NAY !
Ninette

The brain-drain fears have already started.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-drain-brexit-universities-science-academics-referendum-eu-a7100266.html

6 years ago # QUOTE 1 YEA 1 NAY !
Joy

Another thread talks about how Mearsheimer has predicted it so relentlessly that eventually he had to be right, but he was far from the only one.

Oh yes, the thread that ended in the consensus of everyone threatening to kill each other.

6 years ago # QUOTE 1 YEA 1 NAY !
Vienne

Another thread talks about how Mearsheimer has predicted it so relentlessly that eventually he had to be right, but he was far from the only one.
Oh yes, the thread that ended in the consensus of everyone threatening to kill each other.

Further evidence that Mearsheimer is right. No?

6 years ago # QUOTE 5 YEA 1 NAY !
Gus

Summers is a fool. The UK polls did ok: tied with 9 percent undecided, based on last polls.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum

6 years ago # QUOTE 3 YEA 3 NAY !
Sansa

LOL, imagine having him as your prof. Pompous ass! No wonder Aberdeen is ranked down among the bottom of the barrel in politics in the UK.

I am glad Britain vote Leave just because it gave this douche a bad day.
The clown at Aberdeen University in Scotland who describes himself as an "Int'l Relations prof, European security, EU/US politics, military history. US/UK/EU citizen, Europhile". His Twitter feed is the epitome of the ugly American, with him expressing deep disappointment with the British people, lol:
https://twitter.com/ProfMESmith?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

6 years ago # QUOTE 1 YEA 2 NAY !
Stephanie

Any scholar whose theories assume that people make rational, cost-benefit calculations in political life.

Big-10 mediocrity detected.

6 years ago # QUOTE 0 YEA 5 NAY !
Alisa

IPE scholars failed us. Entire field is worthless.

6 years ago # QUOTE 1 YEA 2 NAY !
Makenzie

Wow that guy is a douche.

LOL, imagine having him as your prof. Pompous ass! No wonder Aberdeen is ranked down among the bottom of the barrel in politics in the UK.
I am glad Britain vote Leave just because it gave this douche a bad day.
The clown at Aberdeen University in Scotland who describes himself as an "Int'l Relations prof, European security, EU/US politics, military history. US/UK/EU citizen, Europhile". His Twitter feed is the epitome of the ugly American, with him expressing deep disappointment with the British people, lol:
https://twitter.com/ProfMESmith?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

6 years ago # QUOTE 0 YEA 2 NAY !
Boehner

Polisci (and, as a matter of fact, statistics) was not made for predicting individual events from general (e.g., population-level) models. We can understand general patterns (A is correlated with B over many observations), but our models usually report uncertainty measures. Predicting single outcomes such as Brexit versus non-Brexit necessarily has to carry these uncertainty measures with it, so it is pretty useless when the point prediction is around 0.49 and the confidence interval is something like [0.45; 0.53]. You could also call this an ecological fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy

All political scientists. Here's Larry Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/whats-crucial-to-know-the-morning-after-brexit/

6 years ago # QUOTE 3 YEA 1 NAY !
Pollyanna

How do you think Brexit will affect US academics looking to go on the market in the UK?

6 years ago # QUOTE 1 YEA 1 NAY !
Makenzie

^A net positive for US citizens. UK was giving preference to EU members.

6 years ago # QUOTE 0 YEA 1 NAY !

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Biggest Academic Loser from Brexit?

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