Could be really tight. Lots of uncertainty will likely lead to very conservative admin decisions, international enrollment may drop and threaten established revenue streams.
Fall 2020 job market
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My department has put our only TT position search hold for the time being, at the instruction of our college dean. There no timetable for when we might be able to continue the search and actually invite candidates for interviews. Even though the coronavirus situation is the stated reason our dean gave us for pausing the search, we've been hearing that budget uncertainty is also a major factor - with the stock market tanking, the college doesn't want to be making any new offers for the forseeable future.
https://www.poliscirumors.com/topic/searches-on-hold#post-1712965
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Honestly, its going to be awful. I hate to say it but its true.
Budgeting and TT line allocation decisions are typically be made in the next three months. Those three months are going to be marked by massive uncertainties about enrollment levels, whether online instruction will continue into next year, and how many international students will continue to come to the US. In addition, the stock market tanking is going to put the hurt on university endowments, leading to a lot of retrenchment pressures. And the economy likely going into recession is going to squeeze state revenues and probably induce hiring freezes in a lot of public institutions.
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I posted something on a different thread. Our TT line in the fall has been put on hold. Murmurs from the dean's office are that it will be converted to non-TT for now, becoming TT later. I'm not holding my breath on the latter. Once they find that the person we hire does a good job teaching non-TT at a fraction of a TT line, they'll likely reassess their priorities. And the wheels keep grinding...
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The people saying that many students will leave and not come back don't make sense. Where are these students going to go? If they're talking about the quasi-homeless students, that's not going to affect any schools since these students are already a tuition income loss with the amount of discounts they get.
If anything, we're going to ensure that 18 years from now there's a boom in new freshmen.