This is not a conversation we have had, but we should have it. Theorists simply don’t get tenure-track placements here. They do get VAPs sometimes and keep stringing those together for a few years. I assume one or two eventually got a TT, but I’m not our placement director, so I don’t know.
Same here, but based on feedback from our job market candidates the theory field is so clogged with people coming off of multi year fellowships and VAPs that our ABDs are even disadvantaged in that spring market now. This is not a problem for our other fields, though that could be happening soon given the depressingly long list of universities with hiring freezes.
Our Americanists and IR people get jobs. Not always in academia, but they consistently find good careers. Our theorists mostly fade away after a one year VAP and we lose track of them.