VC (MIT) graduated from Harvard at the same time and she has already produced a solo APSR and a co-authored APSR. Also she had a solo CPS and a multiple co-authored CPSs when she hit the market. Hard to say why SP would be a better hire than VC. Same pedigree, same promise/potential, one already has multiple top pubs and more under review.
ex ante != ex post
It is relevant though, because VC also had a Stanford talk. Maybe Stanford isn't so good at predicting outcomes after all, if their ability to discern "promise" is this bad.
and again ex post != ex ante, but great use of fallacious logic, i.e.,
conditional on outcomes ex post, we conclude stanford can't make predictions ex ante. i mean you're failing simple logic at this point.
No. The point is that hiring people without strong publication records only makes sense if you can predict who is going to be productive.
1) you're 100% ignoring the prior post about different incentives
2) hitting at APSR is like a lottery, this point is about predicting hits/impact over the long-run, not how smart the megaball winner was for picking the right numbers
3) you're conditioning on one case ex post, not every hire will hit big immediately, but guarantee stanford is much, much, much better at picks than you....
4) JFC no wonder econ thinks PS is full of such dullards