Presumably this thread is about American academia. If you want insight into the future of academia more broadly you should look to trends in other countries, which will give you insight into how US academia might develop when confronted with some of these issues. Yes it is likely to become a smaller industry, or at least differently composed that what we’ve seen in recent decades. But that doesn’t mean it disappears.
Where do yall see academia in 30 years
-
Demographic wave is going to demolish a number of small directionals and LACs. There simply will not be the bodies to enroll.
And to follow up on the above point, that makes American academia look more similar to the European scale. A smaller ballgame, but not the end of the world.
-
Yep. No one would ever come here and say this with a straight face.
I don't know and I don't care: I jumped ship (as a full professor) this past year.
You realize no one actually falls for this, right? No one believes you, and that's saying something, as this place is crawling with incredibly gullible people.
-
Demographic wave is going to demolish a number of small directionals and LACs. There simply will not be the bodies to enroll.
Some struggling LACs will close when the baby bust hits in five years. Directionals will stay open. They always have a lot of local political support. Any intelligent local pol of any party or persuasion knows to fight for his local schools.
-
This is true. Though some directions may become branch campuses of other state institutions. Small slacs are first to go, we're seeing it already. As consolidation happens, it's even more important to get a gig at a bigger school / one with money and consistent enrollment
Demographic wave is going to demolish a number of small directionals and LACs. There simply will not be the bodies to enroll.
Some struggling LACs will close when the baby bust hits in five years. Directionals will stay open. They always have a lot of local political support. Any intelligent local pol of any party or persuasion knows to fight for his local schools.
-
Hundreds of universities will closes in the next decade. Endowment challenged LACs will be first, followed by rural, non-selective R2s and lower. The CARES money helped some fight this offer for a few years but the enrollment bust will soon come home to roost. Too many schools are chasing a shrinking number of students. Administrative costs are too high. State legislatures in many states are insane and will not fund higher ed and instead think pouring money in to failing K-12 is the answer. Far too many non-power 5 schools are chasing athletic success that they will never attain and in turn are pillaging the academic coffers.
-
They'll lower the bar for entry and recruit internationally. Most will survive by doing this.
It's already started. I've got a friend who teaches in a graduate program in one of the Maryland schools and he is convinced that the only criterion for entry is "did the check clear?"